← THE DOCKETTRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-06-23
SJS / OTT
OTT +89.4 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). The model's feasibility audit disagreed with the trade: Cap Floor Violation.
SOURCE · tsn.caCONDITIONS · Trade also included Brandon Svoboda SJS -> OTT. 9th overall pick
F
SJS model grade F
Value net -89.4 NAV, 68% of the larger package, behind.
A+
OTT model grade A+
Value net +89.4 NAV, 68% of the larger package, ahead.
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · OTT gets 146 raw from SJS and sends 42 raw: +104.0. Package counting -14.6 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +89.4.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
OTT sends: 42 raw, 42 counted
2026 1st Round Pick (OTT): raw 42 counted in full
SJS sends: 146 raw, 131 counted
William Eklund: raw 123 counted in full
Kasper Halttunen: raw 23 → counted 8. Counts for less as an additional player in the package (roster-slot decay and an age penalty).
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- San Jose Sharks rejects massive underpayment. San Jose Sharks is being asked to give up 146 NAV while only receiving 42 NAV. This is a gross underpayment and gets rejected.
- Cap Floor Violation. San Jose Sharks would fall below the NHL's $76.9M cap floor.
- San Jose Sharks is significantly overpaying. The NAV analysis shows San Jose Sharks giving up 146 NAV points worth of assets and receiving only 42 — a 61% gap.
FULL RULING AND PLAYER DETAIL ON THE DOCKET →