← THE DOCKETTRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-06-26
DET / UTA
DET +42.0 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting).
A+
DET model grade A+
Value net +42.0 NAV, 100% of the larger package, ahead.
F
UTA model grade F
Value net -42.0 NAV, 100% of the larger package, behind.
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · DET gets 42 raw from UTA and sends -6 raw: +48.0. Package counting -6.0 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +42.0.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
DET sends: -6 raw, 0 counted
Sebastian Cossa: raw -6 → counted 0. Negative NAV counts as zero inside a package.
UTA sends: 42 raw, 42 counted
2026 1st Round Pick via BOS: raw 42 counted in full
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Cossa carries goalie-value variance. Sebastian Cossa's goalie NAV is a wider band than a skater point estimate because workload, age, and single-season save results are less stable. Treat the 85/100 volatility score as a risk adjustment in package construction.
- Change of scenery — Cossa may thrive elsewhere. A different deployment, line combination, or organizational culture sometimes unlocks production.
- Utah Mammoth is significantly overpaying. The NAV analysis shows Utah Mammoth giving up 42 NAV points worth of assets and receiving only -6 — a 100% gap.
FULL RULING AND PLAYER DETAIL ON THE DOCKET →