← THE DOCKETTRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-06-26
MTL / VGK
VGK +13.0 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). The model's feasibility audit disagreed with the trade: Cap Ceiling Breach.
C-
MTL model grade C-
Value net -13.0 NAV, 29% of the larger package, behind.
A+
VGK model grade A+
Value net +13.0 NAV, 29% of the larger package, ahead.
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · VGK gets 45 raw from MTL and sends 32 raw: +13.0. Package counting +0.0 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +13.0.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
VGK sends: 32 raw, 32 counted
2026 1st Round Pick via DAL: raw 32 counted in full
MTL sends: 45 raw, 45 counted
2026 1st Round Pick (MTL): raw 42 counted in full
2027 3rd Round Pick (MTL): raw 3 counted in full
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Cap Ceiling Breach. Montréal Canadiens is already over the ceiling and this trade adds $0.50M more.
- Partner Cap Breach. Vegas Golden Knights is already over the ceiling and this trade adds $6.80M more.
FULL RULING AND PLAYER DETAIL ON THE DOCKET →