← THE DOCKETTRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-07-01
DAL / NSH
NSH +82.0 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). The model's feasibility audit disagreed with the trade: Dallas Stars rejects massive underpayment.
F
DAL model grade F
Value net -82.0 NAV, 85% of the larger package, behind.
A+
NSH model grade A+
Value net +82.0 NAV, 85% of the larger package, ahead.
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · NSH gets 98 raw from DAL and sends 14 raw: +84.0. Package counting -2.0 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +82.0.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
NSH sends: 14 raw, 14 counted
2028 3rd Round Pick via VGK: raw 2 counted in full
2027 2nd Round Pick (NSH): raw 12 counted in full
DAL sends: 98 raw, 96 counted
Mavrik Bourque: raw 96 counted in full
Ilya Lyubushkin: raw 2 → counted 0. Counts as zero: after roster-slot decay and the age penalty nothing is left.
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Dallas Stars rejects massive underpayment. Dallas Stars is being asked to give up 98 NAV while only receiving 14 NAV. This is a gross underpayment and gets rejected.
- Same-division trade — Central rivals. Intra-division trades are the rarest in the NHL — GMs are deeply reluctant to hand a direct rival an upgrade.
- Dallas Stars is significantly overpaying. The NAV analysis shows Dallas Stars giving up 98 NAV points worth of assets and receiving only 14 — a 84% gap.
FULL RULING AND PLAYER DETAIL ON THE DOCKET →