← THE DOCKETTRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-07-01
BUF / EDM
EDM +7.0 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). The model's feasibility audit disagreed with the trade: Partner Cap Breach.
B
BUF model grade B
Value net -7.0 NAV, inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV).
B
EDM model grade B
Value net +7.0 NAV, inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV).
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · EDM gets 9 raw from BUF and sends 2 raw: +7.0. Package counting +0.0 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +7.0.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
EDM sends: 2 raw, 2 counted
2028 3rd Round Pick (EDM): raw 2 counted in full
BUF sends: 9 raw, 9 counted
2028 7th Round Pick (BUF): raw 1 counted in full
Devon Levi: raw 8 counted in full
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Levi carries goalie-value variance. Devon Levi's goalie NAV is a wider band than a skater point estimate because workload, age, and single-season save results are less stable. Treat the 85/100 volatility score as a risk adjustment in package construction.
- Partner Cap Breach. Edmonton Oilers is already over the ceiling and this trade adds $0.91M more.
FULL RULING AND PLAYER DETAIL ON THE DOCKET →