Cap & Crease
Est. 2026 — Vol. I — Data Feed Active
PUBLIC RECORD · THE DOCKET
TRADE RULINGS
Loading published trade rulings and current grades
Cap & Crease
Est. 2026 — Vol. I — Data Feed Active
← THE DOCKET
TRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-07-01
TBL / TOR
TBL +57.0 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). The model's feasibility audit disagreed with the trade: Partner Cap Breach.
TBL model grade A+
Value net +57.0 NAV, 100% of the larger package, ahead.
TOR model grade F
Value net -57.0 NAV, 100% of the larger package, behind.
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · TBL gets 57 raw from TOR and sends -2 raw: +59.0. Package counting -2.0 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +57.0.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
TBL sends: -2 raw, 0 counted
Nick Paul: raw -2 → counted 0. Negative NAV counts as zero inside a package.
TOR sends: 57 raw, 57 counted
2028 3rd Round Pick (TOR): raw 4 counted in full
2027 4th Round Pick (TOR): raw 3 counted in full
Dennis Hildeby: raw 50 counted in full
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Crease logjam in Tampa Bay Lightning — Vasilevskiy already owns the net. Andrei Vasilevskiy already owns the net (282 NAV, +24.7 GSAx). Adding Dennis Hildeby converts a strength into a logjam — defensible only as a platform to flip one of the two, not as a roster need.
- Hildeby carries goalie-value variance. Dennis Hildeby's goalie NAV is a wider band than a skater point estimate because workload, age, and single-season save results are less stable. Treat the 82/100 volatility score as a risk adjustment in package construction.
- Partner Cap Breach. This trade puts Toronto Maple Leafs $1.51M over the ceiling.
- Same-division trade — Atlantic rivals. Intra-division trades are the rarest in the NHL — GMs are deeply reluctant to hand a direct rival an upgrade.
- Toronto Maple Leafs needs picks, not aging vets. Rebuilding teams trade current assets to stockpile picks and prospects — not to receive aging veterans with limited upside.
- Toronto Maple Leafs is significantly overpaying. The NAV analysis shows Toronto Maple Leafs giving up 57 NAV points worth of assets and receiving only -2 — a 100% gap.