← THE DOCKETTRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-09-01
NJD / NSH
NJD +100.0 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). The model's feasibility audit disagreed with the trade: Cap Ceiling Breach.
CONDITIONS · marked * on Sportsnet; terms not given
A+
NJD model grade A+
Value net +100.0 NAV, 74% of the larger package, ahead.
F
NSH model grade F
Value net -100.0 NAV, 74% of the larger package, behind.
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · NJD gets 136 raw from NSH and sends 36 raw: +100.0. Package counting +0.0 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +100.0.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
NJD sends: 36 raw, 36 counted
2028 1st Round Pick via COL: raw 25 counted in full
2028 2nd Round Pick (NJD): raw 11 counted in full
NSH sends: 136 raw, 136 counted
Luke Evangelista: raw 136 counted in full
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Nashville Predators rejects massive underpayment. You are asking Nashville Predators to give up 136 NAV while only offering 36 NAV in return. The offer needs significantly more value to be taken seriously.
- Cap Ceiling Breach. This trade puts New Jersey Devils $2.70M over the ceiling.
- Depth glut at W. New Jersey Devils already has 11 quality Ws on the roster.
- Rental premium risk — Evangelista. Luke Evangelista is a rental. History is not kind to rental buyers.
- Nashville Predators is significantly overpaying. The NAV analysis shows Nashville Predators giving up 136 NAV points worth of assets and receiving only 36 — a 74% gap.
FULL RULING AND PLAYER DETAIL ON THE DOCKET →