Cap & Crease
Est. 2026 — Vol. I — Data Feed Active
PUBLIC RECORD · THE DOCKET
TRADE RULINGS
Loading published trade rulings and current grades
Cap & Crease
Est. 2026 — Vol. I — Data Feed Active
← THE DOCKET
TRADE BREAKDOWN · COMPLETED 2026-09-28
TOR / CBJ
EVEN +7.7 AS SAVED (the model's value read, after package counting). SOURCE · tsn.ca
TOR model grade B
Value net +7.7 NAV, inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV).
CBJ model grade B
Value net -7.7 NAV, inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV).
A grade is the model's value read at the time, as a letter: how far apart the two packages were after package counting, as a share of the larger one. Trades the headline calls fair are a B for both clubs. It leaves out cap, lineup holes, fit, the contention window and injuries, which are listed separately below, and a club can take a lower grade for need. It's not a prediction of who wins the trade; the value model ordered real trades only modestly better than chance.
THE SCALE · v1
- A+: ahead by 28% or more
- A: ahead by 20% or more
- A-: ahead by 15% or more
- B+: ahead by 10% or more
- B: inside the fair band (within 10% or 10 NAV)
- B-: behind by 10% or more
- C+: behind by 15% or more
- C: behind by 20% or more
- C-: behind by 28% or more
- D+: behind by 36% or more
- D: behind by 44% or more
- D-: behind by 52% or more
- F: behind by 60% or more
The before-and-after snapshot was not recorded for this trade: it was saved before that existed. The package, margin and grading details below are as saved.
HOW THE MARGIN IS BUILT · TOR gets 184 raw from CBJ and sends 278 raw: -94.0. Package counting +101.7 (best player in full, each further player counts for less, negative players count as zero). Margin +7.7.
PER-ASSET COUNTING
TOR sends: 278 raw, 229 counted
2027 2nd Round Pick (TOR): raw 12 counted in full
Matthew Knies: raw 181 counted in full
Emil Andrae: raw 79 → counted 36. Counts for less as an additional player in the package (roster-slot decay and an age penalty).
Steven Lorentz: raw 6 → counted 0. Counts as zero: after roster-slot decay and the age penalty nothing is left.
CBJ sends: 184 raw, 237 counted
Kirill Marchenko: raw 237 counted in full
Miles Wood: raw -19 → counted 0. Negative NAV counts as zero inside a package.
Elvis Merzlikins: raw -34 → counted 0. Negative NAV counts as zero inside a package.
HOW IT WAS GRADED · AS SAVED · Saved before grading dates were recorded, so the day it was graded, the model version and the data dates are not known. This cannot be called a grade struck at the time of the trade.
WHAT THE MODEL FLAGGED
- Franchise-for-franchise: moving Knies is defensible. Matthew Knies (181 NAV) only moves for a franchise-calibre return, and this package clears that bar. Kirill Marchenko is a franchise-calibre return at 237 NAV.
- Merzlikins carries goalie-value variance. Elvis Merzlikins's goalie NAV is a wider band than a skater point estimate because workload, age, and single-season save results are less stable. Treat the 56/100 volatility score as a risk adjustment in package construction.
- Depth glut at W. Toronto Maple Leafs already has 10 quality Ws on the roster.
- Kirill Marchenko is a rental. History is not kind to rental buyers.