John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · Age 36

180

RoleROLE: High-Danger Distributor· SECONDARY ROLE: Floor Raiser

Seeks the cross-seam and low-to-high pass — sets up high-probability chances instead of settling for perimeter shots.

2025-26 regular season · all situations unless noted

Games

Goals

Assists

Points

Plus/minus

Avg ice time

23.2

On the ice

179

His contract

180

Value Breakdown+180

NAV breakdown for John Carlson: values, pin and compare

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NAV breakdown for John Carlson
Reading	Values	Pin
OFF	NAV: 75 Meaning: On-ice offence — scoring, expected goals, production.
DEF	NAV: 39 Meaning: On-ice defence as the valuation used it. The DEF rating shown on the STRAND rails is a different, descriptive blend.
AGE	NAV: -37 Meaning: Age curve — a youth premium or a decline discount on projected value.
CAP	NAV: -3 Meaning: Contract surplus — the gap between market value and what the club pays, including team-control rights.
POS	NAV: 15 Meaning: Positional scarcity — a centre or a genuine top-pair defenceman is harder to replace.
FLOOR	NAV: 91 Meaning: Franchise floor — a proven cornerstone held above what the surplus model alone would pay.
Total	NAV: 180 Meaning: Combined value

Contract

$8.5M × 2yr

Market AAV

$8.0M

$-0.5M

STRAND DNA

Compare

John Carlson player profile STRAND: values, pin and compare

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John Carlson player profile STRAND
Reading	Values	Pin
Offense: OPS	Rating / 100: 96 Actual: 4.9 Comparison: Unavailable
Offense: xG	Rating / 100: 95 Actual: 13 xG/82 Comparison: Unavailable
Offense: NOIV	Rating / 100: 83 Actual: +3.9% Comparison: Unavailable
Offense: TOI	Rating / 100: 88 Actual: 23.2 min Comparison: Unavailable
Defense: DPS	Rating / 100: 71 Actual: 3.8 Comparison: Unavailable
Defense: SUPP	Rating / 100: 11 Actual: -0.52 xGA Comparison: Unavailable
Defense: QoC	Rating / 100: 74 Actual: 71 Comparison: Unavailable
Defense: OZ Starts	Rating / 100: 77 Actual: 52% OZ Comparison: Unavailable

Big number = 0–100 rating vs the NHL field (100 = elite; 50 = league median). Small number = the actual stat. Blue = offensive traits, red = defensive traits — wave color marks the trait family, never good vs bad.

What does each trait mean?

OPSOffensive Point Shares — offense measured in standings points

xGExpected goals created per 82 games (shot quality × volume)

NOIVNet on-ice value — the team's shot-quality edge with him on the ice

TOIIce time per game — minutes played, a proxy for coaching trust

DPSDefensive Point Shares — defense measured in standings points

SUPPSuppression — fewer scoring chances allowed than his teammates

QoCQuality of competition — how tough his matchups are (0–100)

OZ StartsShare of his shifts that start in the offensive zone (not time spent there)

Percentile rank vs defensemen, ≥20 GP, 2025-26

League Context229 plotted

Ranked among defensemen · ≥20 GP · 2025-26

Tap a point to pin it. Open the table below to compare every player.Click a point to pin it, or drag the plot to select a group.

Compare all plotted players in a table

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Offensive value, defensive value, and NAV for John Carlson and 228 same-position peers
Player	Team	OFF	DEF	NAV	Compare
Lane Hutson	MTL	91	106	+365
Quinn Hughes	MIN	81	105	+334
Matthew Schaefer	NYI	71	65	+330
Moritz Seider	DET	60	98	+268
Rasmus Dahlin	BUF	98	85	+258
Evan Bouchard	EDM	114	61	+256
Jake Sanderson	OTT	71	49	+252
Zach Werenski	CBJ	103	70	+251
Cale Makar	COL	115	40	+216
Darren Raddysh	TOR	95	73	+216
Adam Fox	NYR	81	91	+209
Miro Heiskanen	DAL	73	51	+209
Simon Edvinsson	DET	18	60	+205
Josh Morrissey	WPG	64	68	+199
Jackson LaCombe	ANA	54	70	+195
Jakob Chychrun	WSH	76	81	+193
Erik Karlsson	PIT	80	68	+190
Brock Faber	MIN	51	37	+187
John Carlson · CURRENT	TBL	75	39	+180	Baseline
Charlie McAvoy	BOS	72	36	+175
Roman Josi	NSH	69	65	+162
Mikhail Sergachev	UTA	60	22	+160
Zayne Parekh	CGY	7	23	+154
Luke Hughes	NJD	36	64	+151
Filip Hronek	VAN	38	47	+150
Ivan Provorov	CBJ	19	26	+149
Mike Matheson	MTL	28	-10	+146
Travis Sanheim	PHI	29	34	+146
Seth Jones	FLA	43	63	+143
Philip Broberg	STL	22	32	+142
Esa Lindell	DAL	22	24	+141
Drew Doughty	LAK	21	70	+140
Jacob Trouba	SJS	20	10	+139
Mattias Samuelsson	BUF	35	-4	+139
Shayne Gostisbehere	CAR	83	50	+139
Shea Theodore	VGK	48	43	+139
Brady Skjei	NSH	11	14	+138
Brandon Montour	SEA	38	62	+138
Gustav Forsling	FLA	16	22	+138
Rasmus Andersson	VGK	40	22	+138
Jake McCabe	TOR	14	45	+137
MacKenzie Weegar	UTA	19	52	+137
Colton Parayko	STL	9	26	+136
David Jiricek	PHI	-2	4	+135
Devon Toews	COL	25	21	+134
K'Andre Miller	CAR	37	47	+131
Bowen Byram	CHI	39	50	+127
Jordan Spence	OTT	36	72	+118
Jamie Drysdale	PHI	28	68	+117
Cam York	PHI	13	31	+114
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	TBL	30	53	+114
Denton Mateychuk	CBJ	28	37	+114
Noah Dobson	MTL	49	25	+109
Thomas Harley	DAL	38	38	+109
Artyom Levshunov	CHI	16	41	+107
Brandt Clarke	LAK	38	63	+105
Rasmus Sandin	WSH	25	52	+96
Axel Sandin-Pellikka	DET	17	54	+93
Mason Lohrei	BOS	26	64	+93
Matthew Robertson	NYR	12	46	+92
Tom Willander	VAN	12	52	+92
Vince Dunn	SEA	44	61	+92
Yan Kuznetsov	CGY	5	30	+92
Damon Severson	CBJ	36	91	+91
Ryker Evans	SEA	16	54	+91
Adam Wilsby	NSH	10	46	+89
Owen Power	BUF	24	43	+88
Parker Wotherspoon	VGK	16	39	+86
Jonathan Aspirot	BOS	12	46	+85
Nils Lundkvist	DAL	9	58	+84
Olen Zellweger	BUF	19	48	+84
Tony DeAngelo	NYI	30	64	+84
Vladislav Gavrikov	NYR	29	37	+84
Sam Rinzel	CHI	11	42	+83
Wyatt Kaiser	CHI	6	38	+82
John Marino	UTA	29	50	+81
Henri Jokiharju	BOS	18	54	+80
Zeev Buium	VAN	23	55	+80
Emil Andrae	TOR	12	53	+79
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	TOR	34	65	+79
Sam Dickinson	SJS	4	43	+79
Sam Malinski	COL	42	57	+78
Thomas Chabot	OTT	39	34	+77
Kaedan Korczak	PIT	12	53	+75
Ian Moore	ANA	9	56	+74
Ilya Solovyov	PIT	19	44	+74
Alexander Nikishin	CAR	34	27	+73
Dmitry Orlov	SJS	29	79	+70
Alex Vlasic	CHI	3	18	+69
Tyler Tucker	STL	11	42	+69
Justin Barron	NSH	8	52	+68
Logan Mailloux	STL	5	33	+68
Noah Hanifin	VGK	24	36	+68
Sean Durzi	NYR	31	41	+68
Jayden Struble	MTL	9	51	+67
Max Crozier	TBL	12	34	+67
Drew Helleson	ANA	6	34	+66
Emil Lilleberg	TBL	8	30	+66
Justin Faulk	DET	36	35	+64
Martin Fehérváry	WSH	18	39	+64
Joel Nystrom	CAR	17	22	+63
Mikey Anderson	LAK	7	30	+63
Shakir Mukhamadullin	EDM	7	32	+63
Simon Nemec	CGY	21	41	+63
J.J. Moser	TBL	22	24	+62
Uvis Balinskis	FLA	12	44	+62
Kaiden Guhle	MTL	11	32	+61
Louis Crevier	BUF	12	16	+61
Nick DeSimone	UTA	12	54	+61
Tyler Kleven	OTT	7	31	+61
Cale Fleury	SEA	5	47	+60
Jack St. Ivany	WPG	11	35	+60
Lian Bichsel	DAL	3	34	+59
Sean Walker	CAR	25	39	+59
Urho Vaakanainen	NYR	4	49	+59
Ty Emberson	EDM	1	42	+58
Jacob Bryson	DET	8	48	+57
Morgan Rielly	TOR	39	60	+57
Donovan Sebrango	FLA	3	31	+54
Nick Blankenburg	FA_POOL	32	24	+54
Andrew Peeke	UTA	1	25	+52
Brayden Pachal	CGY	8	37	+52
Colton White	CBJ	6	47	+52
Hampus Lindholm	BOS	26	56	+52
Pierre-Olivier Joseph	CAR	8	35	+52
Samuel Girard	PIT	20	52	+52
Aaron Ekblad	FLA	18	17	+49
Timothy Liljegren	WSH	7	23	+49
Rasmus Ristolainen	PHI	13	48	+48
Brent Burns	COL	37	14	+45
Logan Stanley	FA_POOL	26	20	+45
Zach Metsa	BUF	3	39	+44
Artem Zub	OTT	21	24	+43
Declan Chisholm	NJD	8	29	+43
John Klingberg	FA_POOL	39	36	+43
Mario Ferraro	WPG	7	5	+42
Matthew Kessel	NYI	0	38	+42
Spencer Stastney	EDM	-2	34	+42
Dougie Hamilton	NJD	44	57	+40
Kyle Capobianco	DAL	8	34	+40
Declan Carlile	PIT	-6	36	+39
Dylan Samberg	WPG	2	33	+37
Pavel Mintyukov	ANA	14	17	+37
Alec Regula	EDM	-3	27	+36
Hunter Brzustewicz	CGY	6	29	+36
Kevin Bahl	CGY	1	9	+36
Vincent Iorio	NYR	-4	21	+36
Joshua Mahura	SEA	2	28	+34
Elias Salomonsson	WPG	2	18	+33
Nicolas Hague	NSH	6	40	+33
Albert Johansson	DET	-4	15	+32
Troy Stecher	TOR	4	35	+32
Arber Xhekaj	MTL	-6	43	+31
Joel Hanley	CGY	0	55	+31
Dmitri Simashev	UTA	-9	26	+29
Jake Christiansen	CBJ	-4	35	+29
Philippe Myers	TOR	-8	34	+29
Simon Benoit	PHI	-10	22	+27
Jonas Brodin	MIN	16	43	+26
Zach Whitecloud	CGY	1	19	+26
Niko Mikkola	FLA	-1	43	+25
Noah Juulsen	COL	1	25	+25
Mike Reilly	CAR	11	18	+24
Nate Schmidt	UTA	16	48	+23
Marcus Pettersson	NYR	2	29	+21
Mattias Ekholm	EDM	40	31	+20
Braden Schneider	NYR	1	21	+19
Jacob Bernard-Docker	DET	-7	18	+19
Johnathan Kovacevic	NJD	6	33	+19
Jonas Siegenthaler	NJD	-1	22	+18
Daemon Hunt	MIN	2	8	+16
Ryan Shea	EDM	23	10	+16
Victor Mancini	VAN	-1	9	+16
Alexander Petrovic	FLA	2	33	+15
Jalen Chatfield	CAR	4	9	+13
Dylan DeMelo	WPG	7	25	+12
Neal Pionk	WPG	7	22	+12
Nikolas Matinpalo	OTT	-6	5	+12
Olli Maatta	MIN	20	20	+12
Michael Kesselring	SJS	1	36	+11
Connor Clifton	BOS	1	25	+10
Haydn Fleury	WPG	-3	12	+10
Josh Manson	COL	27	26	+10
Alexandre Carrier	MTL	14	0	+9
Cam Fowler	STL	22	35	+8
Jaccob Slavin	CAR	4	22	+8
Adam Pelech	NYI	7	36	+7
Matt Roy	WSH	7	31	+7
Zach Bogosian	MIN	1	24	+5
Jake Walman	EDM	23	16	+4
Nikita Zadorov	BOS	7	20	+4
Jared Spurgeon	MIN	19	48	+3
Ilya Lyubushkin	NSH	0	29	+2
Brian Dumoulin	LAK	4	52	+1
Conor Timmins	BUF	2	-12	0
Will Borgen	BOS	2	21	0
Jeremy Lauzon	VGK	0	23	-1
Brett Pesce	NJD	2	23	-3
Ryan Graves	PIT	0	47	-3
Brayden McNabb	VGK	4	22	-5
Kris Letang	PIT	28	27	-5
Tyler Myers	DAL	-4	12	-5
Dante Fabbro	CBJ	3	12	-6
Victor Hedman	TBL	36	40	-6
Nick Jensen	ANA	11	14	-9
Jake Middleton	CGY	5	12	-10
Nick Perbix	NSH	-2	-3	-10
Nick Seeler	PHI	0	20	-11
Brandon Carlo	STL	-5	6	-12
Adam Larsson	SEA	10	9	-13
Ryan Lindgren	SEA	-6	11	-13
Connor Murphy	EDM	5	31	-14
Brett Kulak	COL	-4	31	-15
Scott Mayfield	NYI	1	34	-16
Vincent Desharnais	WSH	-4	20	-18
Ryan Pulock	NYI	13	-5	-19
Radko Gudas	FLA	11	30	-20
Jamie Oleksiak	VAN	4	27	-24
Luke Schenn	VAN	-2	11	-24
Trevor van Riemsdyk	PIT	7	28	-24
Darnell Nurse	SJS	14	16	-28
Brenden Dillon	NJD	0	9	-29
Erik Cernak	TBL	2	2	-30
Erik Gudbranson	CBJ	-5	-15	-30
Ian Cole	CHI	10	-1	-30
Cody Ceci	LAK	-6	22	-31
Joel Edmundson	LAK	6	-13	-40
Ryan McDonagh	TBL	28	7	-42
Ben Chiarot	DET	-2	0	-49

Season reference

Projected season:: 2026-27 · 0 GP observed
Stats baseline:: 2025-26 · completed
Contracts:: 2026-27
Model:: X-NAV 4.2
Struck:: 2026-09-12
Valuation id:: 8474590-2026-09-12-8181f8f54abb47ba

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