Cap & Crease
Est. 2026 — Vol. I — Data Feed Active
TEAM FORM
What each team has done, what it has created, and an estimate of its goal differential for the rest of the season. Through October 16: 5 to 9 games played, so this season counts for 11% to 18% of each outlook. It is early, and the outlook still leans mostly on last season.
| # | TEAM | GP | OUTLOOK PER GAME | GOAL DIFF PER GAME | CHANCES DIFF PER GAME | GOALS ABOVE CHANCES | LAST SEASON GOAL DIFF | LAST SEASON CHANCES DIFF | THIS SEASON COUNTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Avalanche | 8 | +0.97 | +1.67 | +1.13 | +0.54 | +1.23 | +0.85 | 17% |
| 2 | Carolina Hurricanes | 8 | +0.79 | +1.54 | +1.60 | −0.06 | +0.67 | +0.80 | 17% |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 7 | +0.57 | +0.33 | +0.88 | −0.55 | +0.70 | +0.52 | 15% |
| 4 | Vegas Golden Knights | 9 | +0.46 | +1.49 | +1.02 | +0.47 | +0.27 | +0.48 | 18% |
| 5 | Ottawa Senators | 8 | +0.39 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.04 | +0.37 | +0.62 | 17% |
| 6 | Dallas Stars | 7 | +0.35 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.49 | +0.62 | +0.26 | 15% |
| 7 | Minnesota Wild | 8 | +0.35 | +0.79 | +0.56 | +0.23 | +0.40 | +0.28 | 17% |
| 8 | Utah Mammoth | 8 | +0.33 | +1.29 | +1.05 | +0.24 | +0.34 | +0.09 | 17% |
| 9 | Edmonton Oilers | 7 | +0.25 | +1.33 | +0.43 | +0.90 | +0.21 | +0.21 | 15% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 8 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.33 | +0.37 | +0.39 | +0.16 | 17% |
| 11 | Buffalo Sabres | 8 | +0.16 | −0.58 | +0.12 | −0.70 | +0.52 | −0.08 | 17% |
| 12 | Washington Capitals | 7 | +0.11 | +0.33 | −0.40 | +0.72 | +0.28 | +0.08 | 15% |
| 13 | Montréal Canadiens | 7 | +0.06 | −0.82 | −0.17 | −0.64 | +0.34 | −0.06 | 15% |
| 14 | Boston Bruins | 8 | +0.02 | +1.54 | +0.00 | +1.54 | +0.26 | −0.37 | 17% |
| 15 | New Jersey Devils | 7 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.84 | −0.80 | −0.33 | +0.14 | 15% |
| 16 | Detroit Red Wings | 7 | −0.05 | −0.53 | +0.15 | −0.68 | −0.18 | +0.05 | 15% |
| 17 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5 | −0.06 | −1.16 | −0.16 | −1.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | 11% |
| 18 | Anaheim Ducks | 7 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.12 | +0.30 | −0.28 | +0.13 | 15% |
| 19 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | −0.08 | −1.96 | +0.15 | −2.11 | −0.22 | +0.12 | 11% |
| 20 | Florida Panthers | 8 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.00 | 17% |
| 21 | New York Rangers | 9 | −0.12 | +0.82 | +0.39 | +0.43 | −0.17 | −0.38 | 18% |
| 22 | New York Islanders | 7 | −0.18 | +0.61 | −0.71 | +1.32 | −0.09 | −0.24 | 15% |
| 23 | St. Louis Blues | 7 | −0.20 | +0.33 | +0.18 | +0.14 | −0.29 | −0.30 | 15% |
| 24 | Winnipeg Jets | 7 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.31 | +0.35 | −0.33 | −0.20 | 15% |
| 25 | Nashville Predators | 7 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.39 | +0.14 | −0.30 | −0.23 | 15% |
| 26 | Philadelphia Flyers | 9 | −0.25 | −2.29 | −1.65 | −0.64 | +0.01 | +0.11 | 18% |
| 27 | Seattle Kraken | 8 | −0.30 | +1.04 | −0.29 | +1.34 | −0.40 | −0.41 | 17% |
| 28 | San Jose Sharks | 7 | −0.45 | −0.96 | −1.15 | +0.19 | −0.50 | −0.28 | 15% |
| 29 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 8 | −0.48 | +0.17 | −0.70 | +0.87 | −0.52 | −0.57 | 17% |
| 30 | Calgary Flames | 7 | −0.54 | −2.96 | −0.44 | −2.52 | −0.59 | −0.46 | 15% |
| 31 | Chicago Blackhawks | 8 | −0.69 | −1.33 | −0.86 | −0.48 | −0.73 | −0.71 | 17% |
| 32 | Vancouver Canucks | 9 | −0.89 | −1.40 | −1.13 | −0.27 | −1.27 | −0.63 | 18% |
On a narrow screen, scroll the table sideways for the rest of the columns.
HOW TO READ IT
- Goal diff is goals for minus goals against, per game. Chances diff is expected goals for minus against, per game: the shots each team created and allowed, weighted by how often shots like them score. Both are shown against the league average, so zero is an average team.
- Goals above chances is the first minus the second. A positive number means goals are running ahead of chances. That can be finishing, goaltending, special teams or luck; this page does not say which.
- Outlook is an estimate of goal differential per game over the rest of the season. It blends last season's record (half goals, half chances) with this season's games (three quarters chances, one quarter goals). This season's share is games played divided by games played plus 40.
WHAT IT CANNOT SEE
The outlook starts from last season's record, not from today's roster. It knows nothing about trades, signings, retirements or injuries, so a team that changed a lot will be misjudged until its games say otherwise. Team value in the Trade Machine and on the Teams page comes from X-NAV, which is a separate model.
HOW WELL IT WORKS
Tested on 18 seasons of games (2008 to 2025), scoring each season using only earlier ones: counting this season's games alongside last season's record predicted the rest of the season better than last season's record alone, by about 6% in squared error after 5 games, 10% after 10, 12% after 20 and 16% after 41. Adding goals to chances improved on chances alone by a further 5% to 7% at every point. Those tests used a plain last-season record as the starting point and the weighting that fit best; this page leans less on new games, which is more cautious and has not been tested separately. It has not yet been tested against the site's own preseason ratings. Each weekly update is saved before the games it forecasts are played, so the outlook can be scored later.
Expected goals are MoneyPuck's. Last season is 2025-26.